While I’m sure there is at least one snooty historian reading this. Not to say all historians are snooty indeed I like basically all of the historians I’ve ever met but I know at least one that is kind of a jackass. Anyways that bit a tangent out of the way lets get down to the meat of this prediction.
World War I likely had some events that happened before it that lead up to it. I’ve never really studied the first world war but that isn’t the topic of discussion today. People sometimes act like World War II was totally unseen and completely surprising to all parties involved. Indeed whereas World War I was terrible the second World War was absolutely atrocious. Events transpired during it that are the epitome of unbelievable. However it required extremely precise and special events to transpire for it to build to such a level.
You required a nation with industrial strength to hit a point of absolute desolation financially. This financial destitution really needs the extra bonus of being caused by a series of outside nations who are intentionally destroying you. Germany was essentially a wounded animal that was getting the crap poked out of it by a few other nations with sticks. Basically the world wasn’t ignoring it passively but actively. Making sure that Germans knew that nobody outside of Germany cared either. This set them up to trust anyone who promised to get them out of the situation. Now there are tons and tons of other things that happened as well and I’m sure I’m missing some. However it was a matter of taking a powerful nation and treating it like utter crap until it was nothing but tattered remains. The current economic ‘crisis’ really isn’t that impressive compared to the financial doom of the past.
Well most people know the gist of what happened during the second world war. Ending with the introduction of arguably the most feared weaponry the modern world has ever and may ever know. This added a new paradigm to future wars. It is now relatively certain that a new world war would end with something far more dramatic than the second world war. Anyone with the power to destroy cities doesn’t want to risk losing their cities and anyone willing to lose their cities doesn’t have the power.
The introduction of biological weaponry (the lab produced kind) we have another paradigm of possibly creating a weapon that has a global mortality rate in the upper 90’s. This sort of extreme event is a very strong deterrent. Indeed there is little reason anymore to have a world war. While the first world war marked the last great land grab attempt in Europe the second world war was an event brought on by extreme (for a lack of a better term) dickery. If everyone wouldn’t have treated Germany like trash after the first World War there is basically a 100% likelihood that there would have never been a second world war.
The sequence of needs offset by the costs of execution make any future World War extremely unlikely. Indeed everything commonly used now to support the idea of a future world war is merely a more active observation of events that have been happening for a long long time. The rise in terrorism has been the case for centuries, the rise in dissention and international conflict ahs been the case for centuries, and most other ‘notes’ are really more a case of efficient international communication than a sudden dangerous shift in global paradigms.
It is more likely that space will send us a global decimator than man will. At least in the next century or so. The old extremists are dying and the youth are less and less intent on following the suicidal nature of their parents. Which you can’t really blame them for, when all you had to play when you were a kid was beat the rock with a stick or paper cut-out GI Joes of course you’ll grow up to be bitter.
We have I-Phones and Video Games now, even nations that are labeled as ‘haters’ of modernization have high percentages of young citizens who are more or less infatuated with the cultures of other nations. It’s just a matter of surviving the current generation of leaders, once that is done it’ll be quite a long time before another great atrocity happens.